The World’s Most Populous Countries and Their Growth
Population growth is a defining characteristic of our rapidly evolving world, with certain countries leading the way due to their immense populations and dynamic growth rates. These nations shape global trends in economics, culture, and environmental impact, offering unique opportunities and challenges. Exploring the factors behind their population booms—ranging from high birth rates to urbanization—reveals the diverse forces driving their growth. This article delves into the stories of the world’s most populous countries, examining how their expanding populations influence not only their futures but the global landscape as a whole.
1. Pakistan
Despite 60% of Pakistan being covered by desert or mountains, the nation is home to 241.55 million people. The Indus Valley, one of the world’s oldest cradles of civilization, benefits from fertile land that sustains large populations.
From 33.7 million residents in 1951, Pakistan’s population has exploded to become the fifth largest globally. Why? A strong cultural emphasis on large families, particularly in rural areas, has played a significant role. Around 61% of Pakistanis live in rural regions where more children increase the chances of some surviving to adulthood. Additionally, 96.5% of Pakistan’s population is Muslim, a religious group with one of the highest fertility rates globally (2.9 children per woman compared to 2.2 for non-Muslims).
Improved healthcare and sanitation since the 1960s have led to higher life expectancy and lower infant mortality, causing the population to jump from 65.3 million in 1972 to 132.5 million by 1998. Despite government efforts to promote education and family planning, only 30% of the population uses contraception, and Pakistan still has the world’s largest number of out-of-school children. The nation is on track to become the third most populous by 2050, with 403 million residents.
2. Indonesia
Indonesia spans 18,000 islands, covering an area slightly larger than Alaska, yet it is home to 279 million people. This number is a bit deceptive, as 54% (152 million people) live on Java—an island smaller than Mississippi. If Java were a country, it would be the eighth most populous in the world.
Java’s tropical climate, rainfall, and volcanic soil make it one of the most fertile places on Earth, perfect for cultivating crops year-round. The Dutch established Java as their colonial headquarters in the 1600s, and it became a center for coffee, tea, rubber, palm oil, and spices.
As Indonesia industrialized in the 1970s and 1980s, most factories were built in Java’s cities, further concentrating the population. The nation shifted from an 82% rural society in 1970 to a 58% urban society today. Consequently, the fertility rate dropped from over five births per woman to just 2.5 by 2000. While Indonesia’s population tripled from 60 million in 1930 to 179 million by 1990, its growth has since slowed, with only 9 million additional residents expected by 2050.
3. Brazil
When Brazil declared independence 200 years ago, its population was a mere 4 million. This makes sense, considering 60% of Brazil is blanketed by the Amazon rainforest, one of the most inhospitable ecosystems on Earth. Yet, its population grew 50-fold in less than two centuries to 203 million today.
Why? Brazil spans 8.46 million square kilometers, and though only 6.7% of it is arable, that still amounts to 570,000 square kilometers—the fifth-largest total arable land area of any country. The elevation, soil, and climate of regions like São Paulo and Paraná are perfect for cultivating sugarcane and coffee.
When the Portuguese colonized Brazil in the 1500s, they established massive plantations and imported 5.5 million enslaved Africans—ten times as many slaves as were brought to the U.S. After slavery was abolished in 1888, Brazil enticed millions of European and Middle Eastern immigrants to work on farms, followed by the largest Japanese diaspora due to immigration bans in the U.S. and Canada.
A high fertility rate of six births per woman until the 1970s led to a population explosion, from 17 million in 1900 to 119 million by 1980. As Brazil industrialized, rural migration surged, transforming it from 84% rural in 1930 to 88% urban today. However, as urbanization led to smaller families, Brazil’s fertility rate dropped to just 1.6 births per woman, and its population is expected to decline within 20 years.
4. Nigeria
At 910,000 square kilometers, Nigeria is one-ninth the size of Brazil, yet it has 20 million more residents. This is surprising, considering 63% of Nigerians live in extreme poverty, with the nation’s GDP being less than that of Denmark, which has only 5.9 million people.
The reason lies in Nigeria’s high fertility rate of 5.1 births per woman, driven by cultural norms like teen marriage. 43% of Nigerian girls marry before the age of 18, and 16% marry before 15. While urban areas like Lagos have seen a drop in fertility to 3.4 births per woman, 46% of Nigerians still live rurally.
In the north, the Hausa people practice polygamy, with some families having 20 to 30 children. Poor contraception use (5% in rural areas) and medical advancements over the past 30 years have resulted in Nigeria’s population skyrocketing from 88 million in 1990 to 223.5 million today.
While life expectancy remains low at 53.9 years, it’s a significant improvement from 40 years ago. With a median age of just 17.2, Nigeria’s population growth shows no signs of slowing, and it is projected to reach 377 million by 2050.
5. Pakistan
Despite 60% of its land being desert or mountains, Pakistan’s Indus River delta provides some of the most fertile agricultural land on Earth. This history of cultivation explains its population growth, but the main driver is high fertility rates.
From just 33.7 million in 1951, Pakistan has grown to 241.55 million today, largely because 61% of its population still lives in rural areas where large families are culturally valued. The average fertility rate remains high due to a 96.5% Muslim population, as Muslims globally tend to have more children (2.9 per woman).
While the government has attempted to slow growth through education reforms, progress has been slow, with less than 60% literacy, 30% contraception use, and the world’s largest out-of-school child population. Pakistan is expected to become the third most populous nation by 2050, with 433 million residents.
6. Indonesia
Spanning 18,000 islands, Indonesia is slightly larger than Alaska but is home to 279 million people. However, 54% of its population—152 million people—live on Java, an island smaller than Mississippi.
Java’s tropical climate, abundant rainfall, and 45 active volcanoes produce some of the world’s richest soil, making it ideal for cultivating cash crops. During Dutch colonization in the 1600s, Java became a hub for coffee, tea, rubber, and spices.
As Indonesia industrialized in the 1970s, most factories were built on Java, further increasing its population density. The nation’s fertility rate dropped from over five births per woman to 2.5 by 2000, slowing population growth. By 2050, Indonesia is expected to add only 9 million more residents.